Prediction: How fast could the Coronavirus spread in Ireland?

COVID-19 has the potential to explode in Ireland. Make no mistake about it. This virus has the potential to bring our health system to its knees and kill thousands and thousands of people.

This is because of a number of reasons:

  1. This coronavirus is more infectious than the seasonal flu. A person with the flu will infect 1.3 people on average. A person with COVID-19 is currently estimated to infect 2.2 people.
  2. Nobody has an immunity to it.
  3. Scientists do not yet know if the warmer months will help to slow it’s spread.
  4. If our health system becomes overwhelmed by cases of the coronavirus, death rates may spike.

By and large, cases of COVID-19 tend to double every 6 or 7 days. This is unless highly restrictive measures are put in place. If you have been paying attention to the infection counts in other countries, then you have probably already noticed how the figures tend to jump up and double every couple of days.

If you take the facts above and do a bit of basic math, the possibilities of an exponentially spreading virus are dramatic.

Coronavirus: Basic prediction for Ireland.

Below are some basic figures that show what the spread of the coronavirus might look like if we fail to “flatten” its curve:

10 March 2020

Health officials announce that there are a total of 34 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Ireland.

17 March 2020

68 people infected
10 require hospitalisation (15%)
2 people dead or will die (3%)

24 March 2020

136 people infected
20 require hospitalisation (15%)
4 people dead or will die (3%)

31 March 2020

272 people infected
41 require hospitalisation (15%)
8 people dead or will die (3%)

07 April 2020

544 people infected
82 require hospitalisation (15%)
16 people dead or will die (3%)

14 April 2020

1,088 people infected
163 require hospitalisation (15%)
33 people dead or will die (3%)

21 April 2020

2,176 people infected
326 require hospitalisation (15%)
65 people dead or will die (3%)

28 April 2020

4,352 people infected
653 require hospitalisation (15%)
131 people dead or will die (3%)

05 May 2020

8,704 people infected
1,306 require hospitalisation (15%)
261 people dead or will die (3%)

12 May 2020

17,408 people infected
2,611 require hospitalisation (15%)
522 people dead or will die (3%)

19 May 2020

34,816 people infected
5,222 require hospitalisation (15%)
1,044 people dead or will die (3%)

26 May 2020

69,632 people infected
10,445 require hospitalisation (15%)
2,089 people dead or will die (3%)

02 June 2020

139,264 people infected
20,890 require hospitalisation (15%)
4,178 people dead or will die (3%)

09 June 2020

278,528 people infected
41,779 require hospitalisation (15%)
8,356 people dead or will die (3%)

16 June 2020

557,056 people infected
83,558 require hospitalisation (15%)
16,712 people dead or will die (3%)

23 June 2020

1,114,112 people infected
167,117 require hospitalisation (15%)
33,423 people dead or will die (3%)

As you can see – things might begin to spiral out of control in April, with infections surging.

Note that the figures above do not take into account a number of unknown factors:

  1. Government restrictions.
  2. The impact of milder weather on the virus.
  3. How the infection will slow as a larger percent of the Irish population becomes infected.

Conclusion: This virus is serious and needs to be treated as such.

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